Page 2 - Working Paper (Analysis of Political Budget Cycles in Emerging South East Asian Economies)
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DDTC Working Paper 0414                                                                                                DDTC Working Paper 0414

                                                                                   Analysis of

                                         Political Budget Cycles in

                                        Emerging South East Asian


                   Adri Poesoro   1
                                                                              TABLE OF CONTENTS

                   Political  budget cycles has been widely
                   studied  through many researches   that
                   conducted since many years ago.  Most of
                   researches focused on the causal effects of
                                                                             1.  Background
                   an election on macroeconomic policies.
                                                                                Context ..................  3
                   In this  paper, we analyzed  the effect of                2.  Election Years in
                   parliamentary  and executive election
                                                                                Five South East
                   separately  in  five  emerging  South  East
                                                                                Asian Countries ...... 3
                   Asian  Countries  on  fiscal  policies  during
                   period  1985  to  2011.  Fiscal policies  on
                                                                             3.  Fiscal Policy
                   this paper are refers to direct government
                                                                                Analysis ..................  4
                   expenditures and changes in the level and
                   composition of tax revenue.
                                                                             4.  Data and
                                                                                Methodology ........... 5
                   We used econometric approach to analyze
                   linkage  between political  events  and
                                                                             5.  Econometric
                   budget  cycles. We found that  incumbent
                                                                                Results ...................  6
                   governments often exercise expansionary
                   fiscal  policies  through  either  reducing
                                                                             6.  Conclusion .............. 9
                   tax  collection  or  increasing government
                   expenditure, or both, during election years
                   to get more voters.

                   1 Adri A. L. Poesoro is a Chief Economist, DANNY DARUSSALAM Tax


                   The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or
                   entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate
                   as of the date received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. The author’s views expressed in this Working Paper do not
                   necessarily reflect of the views of DANNY DARUSSLAM Tax Center. Working Papers describe research in progress by the authors and are
                   published to elicit comments and to further debate.
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